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In a recent interview the Slovenian Prime Minister Miro Cerar stated that the next migrant wave that comes to Europe might lead to conflicts on the Balkans. He further noted that the European countries should do everything that is in their power to protect the external borders from the conflicts and the disintegration of the travel free Schengen zone. The Slovenian Prime Minister stated that in case the Balkan route is left open, this will bring many conflicts in Europe resulting in economy crises and damage in the tourism sphere.

The Prime Minister of Slovena Miro Cerar further stated that his country will support Bulgaria against the migrants as its neighboring countries Greece and Macedonia are not defending the borders of Schengen in an efficient manner.

A top government official from Bulgaria stated that Bulgaria needs to move ahead, adopt the Euro currency and join the visa-free travel zone of Schengen. Bulgaria is a country in the geographic periphery of Europe, which however is exposed to all crises on the continent. Bulgaria entered the European Union in 2007 with restrictions, yet the country tries to live up to the regulations and norms of the European Union, even if being hit by the migration crises through its borders.

According to the European Union and the authorities in charge of managing the EU funds and economic policy, Bulgaria is ready to join the Euro currency. It a public debt of 27 % of economic output and budget deficit of 1.9% of the domestic gross product, where the two figures are less the limit that the European Union places. In other words, Bulgaria will not be a burden to the European Union.

It is ironic, but Bulgaria even if covering all requirements to become part of the passport-free Schengen zone, was not admitted to this travel free area for political reasons, yet now it guards one of the most important external borders of the European Union.

Bulgaria got a serious support from the Czech Republic for its entry in the travel-free Schengen zone. That happened at a press office of the Bulgarian President, where the Czech Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka stated that his country will support Bulgaria in the accession to the Schengen area. The two politicians agreed that their two countries have similar views on issues that concern security and migration.

The Bulgarian President confirmed that his country has been strictly following the Schengen rules ever since the migration crises from 2013. The words of the president came against the back drop of the Prime Minister of the country who commented that the city of Sofia will not take back the migrants that are sent by Western Europe even if they have come to Europe through Bulgaria. According to the press office of the president, the Czech Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka said that the measures Bulgaria took to protect its external borders and thus the external borders of the European Union have considerably helped in the lowering of the migratory pressure on all countries in Western and Central Europe.

The Schengen passport free zone started in June 1985 when representatives of five European union countries gathered on a boat to sign a treaty that abolished the passport controls in their country. This Schengen agreement became a European Union law in 1997 and thus turned into a defining feature of the European Union itself. Today the Schengen Agreement covers 26 countries that are members’ states and one non-EU member – Switzerland. Bulgaria, even if a member state of the European Union, along with Romania, Croatia, Cyprus, Ireland and Britain remain outside of the Schengen zone and agreement. The treaty as it is now concerns 400 million people on an area of four million sq.km and has made the labor mobility and the trade between the European countries much easier.

Until several years ago, everyone loved Schengen. Today politicians talk about shutdown of the Schengen zone and reintroduction of border controls. The European Union have been under serious pressure in the recent years due to crises, migrants and terrorist attacks. The abolition of the border controls was supposed to be accompanied by stronger external borders and security policy, so that the European Union members should be aware of the people who enter the zone. Yet, Schengen was not prepared for the refuges, for the external crises and the home-grown jihadists. What is more, the Schengen area showed weakness in the very first sign of trouble and several countries already re-introduced their border controls. Talks started on forming a smaller Schengen zone between several countries as a plan to restore the order in the European Union.

Now, in order to save Schengen, the European Union should understand that a borderless area with no sharing of the burden between the countries is not possible. The saving of the Schengen zone depends on a common security and migration policy.

Many Central European governments have acted by overselling the benefits of the European Union in their attempt for these countries to become members of that same union. The boom of the joining countries happened in 2004 and turned into bust as the financial crises of 2008 become a fact. The migrant crises however and the huge debt of Greece have shown the flows of the European union. Thus, several of the ex-Communist countries showed their resentment and were labelled as Eurosceptic. Hungary and Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic claim that the western European countries treat them as second hand members and thus they strongly resent the meddling in their domestic issues, as well as the attempts for imposing the European Union solutions against their will.

The four countries agree upon a EU based on cooperation between the capitals and some western European countries like Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands find is useful and an opportunity for the east-west division between the European Countries to stop.

In late July in the small spa town Baile Tusnad in the Transylvania mountains, many young Hungarians gathered to listen to the speech of their prime minister Viktor Orban. He has done that before, but this year in addition to backing Donald Trump as a president, we also talked about the immigration problem. He stated that the economic crises had turned into a political crisis, and that the migrants flow brought terrorist attacks to Europe.

Mr. Orban is known to be the most severe critic from the inside of the European states that have joined the union after 2004. He and some of the other country leaders are using the situation with the migrants and the Brexit vote to undermine the authority of the European Union and to push their conservative vision on the values of Europe. The split between the eastern and western countries in the union is not clear however. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are still enthusiastic about the European Union. Romania and Bulgaria do their best to join the Schengen passport free zone. Yet, Hungary and Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic are the so called Eastern Critics. According to the political risk consultants, the former communist EU members would not vote to leave, yet many of their citizens are disappointment by the membership.

Germany promised to help Bulgaria in getting enough support for the security of its borders. This happened after the meeting between the Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov and the Chancellor Angela Merkel. The meeting was a result of a call by the Bulgarian Prime Minister for more solidarity concerning the refugee and the migrant crises. The talks were held in the end of August, when the Bulgarian Prime Minister was in Berlin to take part is series of meetings initiated by the German chancellor in connection with the future of the European Union.

Just before the meetings in Germany, Borrisov met with the Prime Minister of Turkey and agreed to present the Turkey’s messages about the visa liberalization. The Turkish citizens currently face Schengen visa requirements. The talks of the Bulgarian Prime Minister came only a week after Frontex, the European Union border agency deployed 100 staff to assist their colleagues in Bulgaria at the borders with Serbia and Turkey. The Prime Minister of Bulgaria insisted on getting equal solidarity as Greece and Italy in the protection of the external border. He further stated that Bulgaria is in need of technical support including patrol boats and helicopters.

In an attempt to minimize the migration crisis effects on Europe, the MEPs have agreed to replace the border agency of the union known as Frontex with a newly formed agency for European border and coast guard, which will have more power. The Schengen zone, which allows passport-free travel, has been blamed for allowing terrorists and various economic migrants to enter and travel free across the European continent.

The formation of the new agency received a positive vote, which means that the border controls in EU will be re-introduced, despite the fact that the Schengen agreement is seen as one of the success stories of the European Union.

The yet to be formed European Border and Coast Guard Regulation Agency will make sure that the external borders of the EU are better managed and safer. The national authorities will still take care of their borders, yet the external borders will be covered by the new agency as well. These new rules are to be applied to all Schengen zone members, but will also cover the territories of Bulgaria and Romania, Croatia and Cyprus, as well as the members of the European Free Trade Association – Iceland and Norway, Liechtenstein and Switzerland.

The new European Border and Coast Guard Regulation Agency will have border guards nominated by the member states. It will also return migrants to their country of origin. Without such effective control on the external borders, the rules of Schengen will not survive.

In June the EU Commission officially confirmed that Bulgaria will be part of the brand new European Border & Coast Guard Agency. The invitation came in a response to a letter by the Bulgarian MEP with Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria, asking the EU Commission to inform Bulgarians whether the new European Border and Coast Guard will concern all EU member states or just the states that are within the Schengen area.

From the written response of the EU Commission it became clear that the regulations which concern the European Border and Coast Guard will also be applied to the external borders according to Tittle II of the Schengen Borders Code. This means that Bulgaria will officially be part of the European Border and Coast Guard. The Bulgarian MP further requested guarantees that the same agency will interfere in case secure protection of the external borders of Bulgaria is needed, and especially the coastal border with the Black Sea and the one with Turkey. The answer of the European Commission stated that Bulgaria, as a member state of the EU is currently hosting the Flexible Operational Activities, the Frontex Joint Land and the other activities of the agency and will also benefit from other Frontex activities such as training and risk analysis.

Once again Bulgaria and Romania are caught in the middle of the crisis and conflicts between their EU neighboring countries. Still, the two countries make their best to assert their interests in the various developing situations, as was stated in the Stratfor May analysis of the geopolitical intelligence.

Situated on the Balkans, in the past Bulgaria and Romania were satellite states of the Soviet Union, which was shaping their foreign and defense policies. As the Soviet Union collapsed, RBulgaria and Romania joining the European Union and NATO in 2007 and making efforts to join the Schengen zone as well.

According to the Stratfor’s forecast, Romania and Bulgaria will be increasingly involved in the refugee crisis in Europe. Due to this refugee crisis, the efforts of the two countries to enter the Schengen zone will be hampered by the measures of the EU states to limit the free movement between the countries.